The AI conversation has shifted. It is no longer a productivity question. It is a portfolio question. The firms that understand this are reconceptualizing their work around AI at the organizational level — and doing their AI strategy and workforce planning in the same breath.
Key Themes
42% of CFOs plan to grow AI spending by 30%+ over two years; but most companies are buying AI tools without rebuilding the workflows those tools are supposed to improve. The ROI gap is widening.
Vista and Thoma Bravo managing LP fears about horizontal SaaS exposure; rules-based software doing horizontal work is most at risk; vertical SaaS with proprietary data holds up better against AI displacement.
Both firms in active discussions with Google to deploy Gemini across portfolio companies. AI buying decisions are moving upstream from the portfolio company to the sponsor level — changing the decision dynamics significantly.
Cloudflare cut 1,100 people (20% of staff) in a record revenue quarter. 150,000+ tech jobs cut in 2026 with AI cited as the primary driver. AI bolted onto an unchanged org chart is overhead, not transformation.
Hyperscalers spending $500B on AI infrastructure in 2026; the biggest PE returns over the next decade are likely in picks and shovels, not applications. The infrastructure layer is where durable value is being created.
Sponsor AI capability is now part of the portfolio company value creation plan. LP fundraising will disproportionately reward AI-capable sponsors. The gap will be measurable by Q4 2026.